Tim Easterby‏

Tim Easterby is a member of the Easterby dynasty – a family of North Yorkshire shrewdies who have been in the racing game for several generations. Whilst his overall strike rate may not match up to the top handlers, Easterby definitely knows the time of day, and when the money is down, punters should pay attention.

In this article we try and uncover Tim Easterby’s modus operandi, identifying when his horses are primed to strike, and when they are best avoided.

2 Year Olds

Easterby is certainly not renowned for his 2 year old debutants. They generally need the run, and by and large, are ignored by the market. There is one exception – when his juveniles debut early season at Ripon.

2 Year Old Debutants

Month	Runners	Winners	Win S/R	P/L to SP	A/E
March	5	0	0%	-£5.00	0
April	83	9	10.8	-£3.09	1.40
May	123	2	1.63%	-£101.00	0.27
June	89	1	1.12%	-£68.00	0.33
July	75	1	1.33%	-£70.50	0.35
August	44	1	2.27%	-£29.00	1.08
September	29	0	0%	-£29.00	0
Octoer	20	0	0%	-£20.00	0
November	2	0	0%	-£2.00	0
December	1	0	0%	-£1.00	0

*A/E denotes actual number of winners divided by expected number of winners. A figure over 1 represents good value, anything under 1 is poor value.

At Ripon in April, he is 6/20 (30%) with his first time out 2 year olds, for a £30 LSP and an A/E of 3.03.

Overall, from May onwards, his 2 year old debutants have a terrible record and are just 5/383 (1.31%) for a loss of £-320, giving a poor A/E of 0.32.

Easterby’s 2 year olds don’t do too much better second time out – they are 22/407 (5.41%) for a loss of £-224 and an A/E of 0.71. They seem to learn slowly and do better with experience – his runners with 4 racecourse starts or more in 2 year old maidens are 17/82 (20.73%) for an A/E of 1.14.

3 Year Olds

Debutants

Although his strike rate is not fantastic, Easterby’s first time 3 year olds actually do better than his juveniles; 12/177 (6.78%) for £40 LSP and an A/E of 1.82. They can win at big prices, with 3 of the runners scoring at 33/1.

Maiden to Handicap Switchers

Horses generally qualify for a handicap mark after having 3 starts in maiden company without winning.

Tim Easterby doesn’t seem to do this – he is just 7/118 (5.93%) with his 3 year old maiden to handicap switchers (didn’t win last time out), producing a loss of £-71 and an A/E of 0.86.

3 Year Old+

While some trainers have perfected the art of getting their horses fit and ready to do themselves justice on the back of a racecourse absence, Easterby tends to favour the ‘old school’ approach of letting his string run themselves into full fitness on the track.

As a result, their performance on the back of a lay-off is moderate to say the least; they generally make very solid lay opportunities.

3 Year Old+ Handicappers

Days Since Last Run	Runners	Winners	Win S/R	P/L to SP	A/E
0-7	458	61	13.32%	-£82.25	1.08
8-14	1,651	179	10.84%	-£298.34	1.03
15-21	1,384	132	9.54%	-£349.32	0.97
22-28	744	66	8.87%	-£114.52	0.99
29-42	623	58	9.31%	-£86.67	1.04
43-56	194	15	7.73%	-£0.80	0.98
57-90	126	10	7.94%	-£41.00	1.09
91-150	69	3	4.35%	-£39.50	0.60
150+	540	24	4.44%	-£251.50	0.67

Horses that are off for 90+ days do poorly. However, in June-August, horses having their second start after being off for 90+ days last time out, off for 2+ weeks do well: 14/106 (13.21%) with a 18 places A/E 1.71.

Last Time Out Winners

There is a pronounced difference in Tim Easterby’s success with his last time out winners depending how long they are off the track for:

3 Year Old+ Last Time Out Winners In Handicaps

Days Since Last Run	Runners	Winners	Win S/R	P/L to SP	A/E
Between 1-21	609	109	17.90%	-£38.87	1.09
22+	292	24	8.22%	-£128.00	0.69

When Easterby’s last time out victors return to the track within 3 weeks, they do well. After that period however, their strike rate is much poorer, and importantly the A/E is just 0.69.

Time of Year

3 Year Old + Runners In Handicaps

Month	Runners	Winners	Win S/R	P/L to SP	A/E
January	78	9	11.54%	-£16.75	0.97
February	73	9	12.33%	-£8.00	1.05
March	117	12	10.26%	-£2.00	1.00
April	535	36	6.73%	-£220.75	0.78
May	784	71	9.06%	-£287.70	0.98
June	841	82	9.75%	-£134.11	1.00
July	865	105	12.14%	-£132.43	1.08
August	899	84	9.34%	-£172.44	0.95
September	719	55	7.65%	-£155.59	0.93
October	564	45	7.98%	-£169.88	0.97
November	198	22	11.11%	£17.50	1.17
December	116	18	15.52%	£18.25	1.34

There is no huge deviation in Tim Easterby’s performance throughout the year. He does however do poorly in April and better towards the end of the year.

Apprentice & Amateur Contests

One area where Tim Easterby runners are worth paying close attention to, is in amateur and apprentice races. These contests are confined to riders of little or minimal experience, and as an experienced trainer, Easterby has become adept at picking the right horses and jockeys to be successful in these contests.

In the last 10 years, his record reads; 30/231 (12.99%) for £32.50 LSP and an A/E of 1.20.

All-Weather v Turf

Although he has far fewer runners on the all-weather than turf, Easterby has a much better strike rate:

All-weather: 67/533 (12.57%) for loss of £-11. A/E 1.12
Turf: 608/7196 (8.45%) for loss of £-2248. A/E 0.94

The time when he is particularly hot on the artificial surfaces, comes just after the turf season finishes. In November-December, his runners are 28/135 (20.74%) for £95 LSP, producing an excellent 1.66 A/E.

Review

Tim Easterby 2 year old debutants are best avoided and make good laying opportunities, with one exception – Ripon in April (where they are 6/20 for a healthy profit. They are also unprofitable second time out and generally improve with racing.
Although he has a modest strike rate with 3 year old debutants, Easterby can have winners at big prices and his runners return a profit.
His handicappers have a higher strike rate the more recently they have run. When they return from a 90+ day break, they are usually half fit and make solid laying opportunities.
His horses having their second run back, when off for 90+ days last time out are profitable in June-August. It seems Easterby primes his performers to peak at this time.
The North Yorkshire trainer does well in amateur and apprentice races.
Backing Easterby’s all-weather performers in November-December is a fruitful activity – they have a 20%+ strike rate and produce a very healthy profit.
Last time out winners in handicaps do well when returning to the track within 3 weeks of victory. Anything over that break, and their performance declines.