Trainer in Focus – Jonjo O’Neill

Jonjo O’Neill is a former jockey turned trainer. He had great success in the saddle and is best known in the training sphere for having runners under the J P McManus green and gold silks. Twenty-time champion Tony McCoy had ridden hundreds of winners for O’Neill before retiring and holds him in high regard. Whilst primarily operating under National Hunt rules, he does have the occasional flat runner.

In this article we take a look at Jonjo O’Neill’s runners under a range of conditions.

Novice Hurdlers

Young horses who are making their debut or have only had a limited number of starts over timber usually compete in novice hurdle races.

Jonjo O’Neill has a solid record with his runners in these contests throughout the year, but excels in late spring and summer months:

Novice Hurdlers by Month

Month	Runners	Winners	Win S/R	P/L to SP	A/E
January	187	16	8.56%	-£52.22	0.97
February	184	26	14.13%	-£73.24	1.27
March	111	13	11.71%	-£56.26	0.86
April	88	16	18.18%	£3.71	1.19
May	99	21	21.21%	-£10.38	1.31
June	55	12	21.82%	-£3.92	1.38
July	49	12	24.49%	-£3.96	1.25
August	51	12	23.53%	-£20.75	0.97
September	51	7	13.73%	-£17.96	0.96
October	182	33	18.13%	-£50.41	1.06
November	238	24	10.08%	-£134.28	0.78
December	180	19	10.56%	-£92.93	1.09

*A/E denotes actual number of winners divided by expected number of winners. A figure over 1 represents good value, anything under 1 is poor value.

Infact, O’Neill’s favourites in April-July are 40/69 (57.97%) in novice hurdle company, which is a staggeringly good record. Their overall strike rate is the highest at this time of year, and the returns are positive in each month.

Handicap Hurdlers

Handicaps are typically competitive affairs, and Jonjo O’Neill does well with his hurdlers under these conditions:

Handicap Hurdlers by Month

Month	Runners	Winners	Win S/R	P/L to SP	A/E
January	152	24	15.79%	£22.92	1.21
February	169	30	17.75%	£10.52	1.27
March	208	16	7.69%	-£101.92	0.69
April	163	23	14.11%	£33.25	1.25
May	207	34	16.43%	-£25.47	1.12
June	153	36	23.53%	£72.67	1.49
July	186	30	16.13%	-£9.04	1.09
August	139	26	18.71%	-£25.22	1.00
September	125	19	15.2%	-£3.00	1.19
October	220	39	17.73%	-£32.47	1.28
November	245	36	14.69%	-£37.43	1.09
December	182	23	12.64%	-£33.00	1.03

Impressively, O’Neill has produced an A/E of 1.00 or more with his handicap hurdlers in 11 of 12 months.

He does especially well in the Spring and early Summer, with very strong results in June.

The performance of O’Neill’s last time out winners in handicap hurdles depends on how long they have been off the track:

Last Time Out Winning Handicap Hurdlers

Days Since Last Run	Runners	Winners	Win S/R	P/L to Sp	A/E
0-7	23	9	39.13%	-£2.96	0.95
8-14	48	14	29.17%	-£11.88	0.96
15-21	48	14	29.17%	£23.10	1.38
22-28	63	16	25.40%	£3.17	1.16
29-42	62	16	25.81%	£17.29	1.31
43-56	36	8	22.22%	£10.25	1.66
57-90	31	7	22.58%	£2.00	1.21
91-150	14	1	7.14%	-£10.00	0.51
150+	37	4	10.81%	-£19.75	0.94

His last time out winners off for a break of 15-90 days exceed market expectations; 61/240 (25.42%) for £55.81 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.30. Those that are turned out quickly (within 2 weeks of their last success) just slightly underperform market expectations and produce losses.

There is a clear trend when it comes to the performance of O’Neill’s runners:

Non Last Time Out Winning Handicap Hurdlers

Days Since Last Run	Runners	Winners	Win S/R	P/L to SP	A/E
1-28	805	118	14.66%	-£54.20	1.24
29-84	628	88	14.01%	-£12.62	1.12
85+	337	41	12.17	-£100.19	0.96

The table shows a clear trend with his runners who did not win last time out. The quicker they get back to the track, the more frequently they win and the better returns they produce (A/E).

Those runners that are 10/1 or shorter, they are 107/505 (21.19%) for £66.80 LSP, for an A/E of 1.28.

Chasers

Handicap Chasers by Month

Month	Runners	Winners	Win S/R	P/L to SP	A/E
January	172	20	11.63%	-£43.25	1.01
February	148	16	10.81%	-£36.70	0.91
March	190	31	16.32%	£12.38	1.31
April	158	16	10.13%	-£70.50	0.86
May	174	28	16.09%	-£58.36	0.97
June	168	30	17.86%	-£11.82	1.03
July	162	27	16.67%	-£20.12	1.01
August	173	37	21.39%	£1.39	1.17
September	128	13	10.16%	-£60.25	0.71
October	240	28	11.67%	-£50.67	0.92
November	272	26	9.56%	-£80.94	0.81
December	215	20	9.30%	-£68.25	0.84

Unlike with his hurdlers, O’Neill does very well with his chasers in March (has a good record with them at Cheltenham). He does well in terms of strike rate and A/E in the summer months but then struggles towards the end of the year.

His handicap chasers in September-December are cumulatively 87/855 (10.18%) for a loss of £-260.12, giving an A/E of 0.83.

O’Neill has a far better record with his chasers who compete over the longer trips:

Chasers by Distance

Distance	Runners	Winners	Win S/R	P/L to SP	A/E
2miles-2miles 2f	322	38	11.80%	-£135.28	0.76
2miles 3f+	1878	254	13.53%	-£351.82	1.01

Although he has many more runners over 2miles 3f, his strike rate is better, returns are comparatively better and the A/E is positive.

Race Class

Jonjo O’Neill and connections are not averse to having a tilt at the betting ring. They are also good at getting their runners well handicapped and picking the right races for their horses. This is evidenced by his record through the race classes:

Handicap Hurdlers and Chasers by Class

Class Number	Runners	Winners	Win S/R	P/L to SP	A/E
1	346	26	7.51%	-£82.75	1.08
2	397	37	9.32%	-£117.63	1.03
3	1126	139	12.34%	-£213.85	0.95
4	1912	325	17%	-£260.32	1.06
5	373	80	21.45%	-£83.53	1.39

The lower the race class, the higher the strike rate. O’Neill does comfortably the best in Class 5 company, with a 21.45% strike rate, and his runners win nearly 40% more often than they are entitled to based on odds.

Class 5 is the lowest, and generally least competitive grade and this is where shrewd race planning can be effective.

Review

O’Neill’s novice hurdlers excel in April-July, especially when they are market leaders.
His handicap hurdlers do poorly in March, but produce A/E’s of 1.0 or over in all other months of the year. They have an especially good record in June.
Jonjo’s last time out winners in handicap hurdles do well when off for 15-90 days.
Those horses who did not win last time out in handicap hurdle company do better the faster they return to the track.
Unlike his hurdlers, Jonjo O’Neill’s handicap chasers do well in March. They struggle from September-December.
His handicap chasers do better over longer distances.
O’Neill’s handicappers in Class 5 company are very profitable and are worth following.