Trainer in Focus – James Given

James Given is a useful trainer who operates out of Lincolnshire. He has a good number of runners each season and knows the time of day when it comes to the betting ring. In this article we take a look at Given’s runners through the different age groups.

2 Year Olds

Given has a modest overall strike rate with his 2 year old debutants, although they do win slightly more often than they should do based on odds; 8/188 (4.26%) for a loss of £-86.50, producing an A/E of 1.12.

Breaking that down by month, a clear pattern emerges:

2 Year Old Debutants by Month

Month	Runners	Winners	Win S/R	P/L to SP	A/E
March	4	0	0%	-£4.00	0
April	8	3	37.05%	£19.00	3.90
May	23	3	13.04%	£1.50	1.85
June	26	0	0%	-£26.00	0
July	17	0	0%	-£17.00	0
August	28	1	3.57%	-£7.00	1.49
September	32	0	0%	-£32.00	0
October	31	0	0%	-£31.00	0
November	12	0	0%	-£12.00	0
December	7	1	14.29%	£22.00	3.84

*A/E denotes actual number of winners divided by expected number of winners. A figure over 1 represents good value, anything under 1 is poor value.

His juvenile debutants do much better at the start of the season. They are 6/35 (17.14%) for £16.50 LSP, A/E 2.26 in March-May. However from June onwards, his horses do very poorly when seeing the racecourse for the first time; 2/153 (1.31%) for loss of £-103. A/E 0.44.

Second time up they don’t have a great record in terms of win percentage – 10/159 (6.29%) for a loss of £-44.82, but the A/E is just marginally below 1.

He likes to get them switched over quickly. When off for over 4 weeks, they are just 1/28.

3 Year Olds

Givens 3 year old debutants are few and far between with just 2 winners from 52 runners in the last 10 years.

His second time out 3 year olds are 5/63 (7.94%) overall, giving a loss of £-20.50 and an A/E of 2.72. When they are fancied in the betting (10/1 or shorter), the results are superb; 4/9 (44.44%) with a further 2 places for £21.50 LSP, giving an A/E of 4.23.

Horses typically obtain an official handicap rating after 3 runs. Many trainers give their horses 3 ‘quiet’ runs to get them well handicapped and then strike on their first foray into handicap company. Given is not one of them.

His record with his thrice race maiden to handicap switchers is 5/105 (4.76%) for loss of £-59, giving an A/E of 0.90.

3 Year Old+ Handicappers Did Not Win LTO

Days Since Last Run	Runners	Winners	Win S/R	P/L to SP	A/E
0-7	154	26	16.88%	£38.44	1.34
8-14	489	54	11.04%	-£35.55	1.09
15-21	461	36	7.81%	-£141.30	0.92
22-28	262	22	8.40%	-£69.80	0.98
29-42	167	9	5.39%	-£79.50	0.67
43-56	64	5	7.81%	-£5.00	1.05
57-90	49	4	8.16%	-£8.25	0.97
91-150	49	3	6.12%	-£20.50	0.99
150+	113	8	7.08%	-£0.25	1.17

Those horses who are turned out within 7 days do very well, winning at the highest percentage, producing a profit and a very positive A/E in the process. Given’s handicappers generally do not underperform market expectations at any time apart from when off for 29-42 days.

Those handicappers that did win last time out also do better off shorter breaks:

3 Year Old+ Handicappers Won LTO

Days Since Last Run	Runners	Winners	Win S/R	P/L to SP	A/E
0-7	32	11	34.38%	£29.70	1.65
8-14	98	15	15.31%	-£45.92	0.81
15-21	43	8	18.60%	-£2.90	1.03
22-28	24	5	20.83%	£8.25	1.48
29-42	14	4	28.57%	£11.75	2.33
43-56	4	0	0%	-£4.00	0
57-90	5	0	0%	-£5.00	0
91-150	5	0	0%	-£5.00	0
150+	4	1	25%	£2.00	1.97

Horses backing up their last victory by returning within 7 days do fantastically, winning at a 34.38% rate. Those runners off for more than 6 weeks are just 1/18 when trying to follow up, giving a loss of £-12 and an A/E of 0.55.

Courses

Training out of Lincolnshire, it comes as no surprise that Given has a lot of runners in the North. His record is mixed, doing very well at some venues and just moderately at others:

Course	Runners	Winners	Win S/R	P/L to SP	A/E
Pontefract	64	11	17.19%	£33.00	1.92
Kempton	155	23	14.84%	£22.50	1.47
Thirsk	88	10	11.36%	£6.63	1.23
Beverley	91	10	10.99%	-£6.25	1.21
Carlisle	41	2	4.88%	-£33.75	0.54
Ripon	51	2	3.92%	-£26.75	0.48
Catterick	60	2	3.33%	-£50.50	0.34
Haydock	68	2	2.94%	-£55.00	0.27

He does especially well at Pontefract, Thirsk and Beverley, but has struggled at Carlisle, Ripon, Catterick and Haydock.

Given has had great success in handicap company on the all-weather at Kempton on his trips to the South, and should always be respected at the venue.

Sex

Some trainers exhibit a bias in performance based on the sex of their runners. Boys and girls can behave very differently, as can those males who have had their crown jewels removed.

Sex	Runners	Winners	Win S/R	P/L to SP	A/E
Colt	118	9	7.63%	-£32.52	0.82
Filly	405	32	7.90%	-£134.27	0.85
Gelding	1235	138	11.17%	-£134.51	1.09
Horse	26	6	23.08%	£27.00	2.51
Mare	256	26	10.16%	-£61.50	1.01

Colts and fillies in 3 year old+ handicaps do poorest. Geldings have the best strike rate and produce a positive A/E (of those horses to have enough runs to produce a reliable sample size). Older females (mares) also do quite well.

Given does particularly well with his 5-7 year olds, so it comes as no surprise that the geldings and mares do well.

All-Weather

James Given has a higher strike rate and better returns with his all-weather runners than on turf, but is there a bias based on which month they are running in?

Month	Runners	Winners	Win S/R	P/L to SP	A/E
January	145	20	13.79%	£2.99	1.00
February	119	16	13.45%	-£4.18	1.12
March	109	17	15.60%	-£14.01	1.30
April	78	13	16.67%	-£11.60	1.23
May	45	8	17.78%	£13.25	1.62
June	45	7	15.56%	£13.23	1.24
July	55	11	20%	£52.03	2.01
August	67	10	14.93%	£17.95	1.43
September	110	2	1.82%	-£84.00	0.24
October	105	11	10.48%	-£4.25	1.13
November	205	19	9.27%	-£69.88	0.93
December	168	24	14.29%	£49.98	1.38

His runners over all age categories produce positive A/E’s in most months with the exception of September (where they do terribly for some reason) and November where performance is a little below average. His runners in the late Spring/Summer months do great (May-August); 36/212 (16.98%) for £96.46 LSP giving an A/E of 1.56.

Review

Given’s 2 year old debutants have a modest strike rate but win marginally more often than odds entitle them to.
They do much better in the early part of the season and can pretty much be disregarded from June onwards.
His second time out 2 year olds again have a moderate record but win about as often as they are expected to.
Given’s nursery debutants who are turned out within 4 weeks are profitable.
The Lincolnshire trainer doesn’t have many first time out 3 year olds, and their record is again average.
However, second time up, if they are fancied (10/1 or shorter), their record is prolific.
His 3 year old maiden to handicap switchers have a low strike rate but score about as often as they are entitled to.
Given’s non last time out winning 3 year old+ runners in handicaps do best when turned out within 2 weeks (especially well when turned out within 7 days).
His last time out winners do best when returning with 4 weeks.
He has a lot of runners in Kempton in handicap company and has a good strike rate and impressive A/E.
Given does well with his older handicappers (5-7 years old).
He has a superb record on the all-weather from May-August.