Trainer in Focus – David Pipe

David Pipe is the son of the infamous Martin Pipe, a handler widely accepted to have influenced the way that horses are trained nowadays. He introduced a new, scientific approach to racehorse training and was renowned for having his horses hard fit. Pipe junior took over the reins several years ago and has had plenty of success in his own right.

In this article we try and uncover some trends and traits in Pipe’s training methodology.

NHF

National Hunt Flat races (commonly known as bumpers), are races designed to give National Hunt horses racecourse experience before they go jumping. They are essentially flat races over 14-18 furlongs and contain horses with varying degrees of ability.

Pipe has a very good record in these races, and excels at a few courses in particular:

National Hunt Flat Debutants by Course

Course	Runners	Winners	Win S/R	P/L to SP	A/E
Towcester	13	7	53.85%	£12.58	2.10
Plumpton	7	5	71.43%	£6.88	1.73
Fontwell	11	5	45.45%	£4.40	1.63
Worcester	14	4	28.57%	£23.00	1.39
Wincanton	10	1	10%	-£7.00	0.61
Exeter	14	0	0%	-£14.00	0
Ludlow	4	0	0%	-£4.00	0
Newton Abbot	5	0	0%	-£5.00	0
Cheltenham	9	0	0%	-£9.00	0

*A/E denotes actual number of winners divided by expected number of winners. A figure over 1 represents good value, anything under 1 is poor value.

His runners need to be respected at Towcester and Plumpton, where their strike rates are superb. The West Country handlers tends to bring his backwards types out to local track Exeter, and is yet to have a debutant winner at the course.

National Hunt Flat Debutants by Age

Age	Runners	Winners	Win S/R	P/L to SP	A/E
3	14	3	21.43%	-£7.82	0.86
4	88	25	28.41%	£57.66	1.35
5	51	10	19.61%	£2.63	1.03
6	14	3	21.43%	£3.00	1.24

It is with 4 year olds that David Pipe does best when it comes to bumper newcomers. His strike rate is very high, he produces a big profit and the A/E is impressive.

When Pipe’s bumper runners do not win on debut, they make good laying opportunities next time up, significantly underperforming market expectations; 6/72 (8.33%) next time up, for a loss of £-39.73, A/E 0.47.

Hurdlers

Pipe’s novice hurdlers don’t really exhibit any particular trends or biases in performance.

His maiden/novice/juvenile to handicap switchers have a moderate record. Horses typically need 3 runs before they qualify for an official rating and can run in handicaps. Overall, Pipe is 17/170 (10%) with these runners, producing a loss of £-86.09 and an A/E of 0.77. Those runners that are unfancied (10/1 or bigger) can be disregarded by punters, as they are 0/54.

Handicap Hurdlers by Month

December and January are the two months when Pipe excels. His runners who are fancied at this time of year (10/1 or shorter) are 48/203 (23.65%) for £20.81 LSP, producing an A/E of 1.31.

Last Time Out Winners by Days Since Last Run

Days Since Last Run	Runners	Winners	Win S/R	P/L to SP	A/E
0-7	51	23	45.10%	£14.73	1.38
8-14	55	11	20%	-£13.56	0.77
15-21	41	5	12.20%	-£12.25	0.85
22-28	51	9	17.65%	£4.53	1.23
29-42	48	3	6.25%	-£33.42	0.39
43-56	25	4	16%	-£10.67	0.89
57-90	26	1	3.85%	-£23.13	0.24
91-150	5	0	0%	-£5.00	0
150+	32	3	9.38%	-£12.00	0.73

Pipe’s last time out winners who are turned out within a week have a particularly high strike rate, produce a decent profit and have a good A/E. They should be followed.

His winners who have been off the track for more than 4 weeks have a contrasting record; 11/136 (8.09%) for loss of £-84.21 A/E 0.52 and make good laying opportunities.

Chasers

David Pipe starts off the season strongly each year with his novice chasers:

Novice Chasers by Month

Month	Runners	Winners	Win S/R	P/L to SP	A/E
January	37	10	27.03%	-£2.21	1.02
February	32	8	25%	-£9.67	0.89
March	43	3	6.98%	-£20.45	0.46
April	28	6	21.43%	-£5.31	1.12
May	25	10	40%	-£2.64	0.99
June	26	9	34.62%	-£6.21	1.03
July	12	1	8.33%	-£8.25	0.26
August	19	5	26.32%	-£4.90	0.90
September	13	4	30.77%	-£4.00	1.08
October	23	7	30.43%	£3.25	1.18
November	37	12	32.43%	-£1.73	1.13
December	34	13	38.24%	£11.33	1.32

From September to December, his runners operate at a 30%+ strike rate and those that are in the front three in the market at this time of year are 32/72 (44.44%) for £22.41 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.24. At other times of the year, he is 52/226 (23.01%) for a loss of £-65.89, A/E 0.87.

Pipe’s handicap chasers follow a slightly different pattern. Whilst they do well at the start of the jumps season, that form continues into the next year:

Handicap Chasers by Month

Month	Runners	Winners	Win S/R	P/L to SP	A/E
January	141	24	17.02%	£20.26	1.21
February	120	27	22.50%	£22.65	1.65
March	178	19	10.67%	-£2.72	1.02
April	168	13	7.74%	-£88.63	0.81
May	81	9	11.11%	-£30.90	0.85
June	76	13	17.11%	£2.48	1.34
July	59	6	10.17%	-£32.50	0.77
August	65	10	15.38%	-£0.17	1.04
September	53	6	11.32%	-£29.75	0.83
October	85	16	18.82%	£10.50	1.28
November	190	25	13.16%	-£2.46	1.02
December	177	23	12.99%	£17.16	1.10

In January-February, Pipe’s handicap chasers are 51/261 (19.54%) for £42.91 LSP, A/E 1.41. He does much better from October-February than he does from March-September.

There are two times to catch David Pipe’s handicap chasers:

Handicap Chasers Days Since Last Run

Days Since Last Run	Runners	Winners	Win S/R	P/L to SP	A/E
0-7	78	15	19.23%	-£14.60	0.90
8-14	172	34	19.77%	£24.37	1.37
15-21	226	28	12.39%	-£33.28	1.01
22-28	242	23	9.50%	-£88.17	0.84
29-42	233	29	12.45%	-£35.98	1.10
43-56	74	8	10.81%	-£32.00	0.86
57-90	96	18	18.75%	£36.20	1.79
91-150	67	8	11.94%	-£6.42	1.07
150+	205	28	13.66%	£14.80	1.18

When they have been off for 8-14 days, they have a very good strike rate, profit and A/E. However, when his runners have had a mini-break (off for 57-90 days), they do the best, winning nearly 80% more often than the odds imply they should do.

Claiming Jockeys

David Pipe used claiming jockeys well and when his horses have an inexperienced pilot aboard, although their strike rate is lower, they provide better value to punters:

Runners Based on Jockey Claim

Jockey Claim	Runners	Winners	Win SR	P/L to SP	A/E
0lbs	4385	712	16.24	-£949.71	0.98
3lbs+	1589	211	13.28	-£238.92	1.11

Those runners who have a claiming jockey on board, have run within 2 weeks and are favourite provide great value; 43/86 (50%) for £34.65, A/E 1.37.

Review

Pipe does very well with bumper debutants at Towcester and Plumpton. His runners should be avoided at Exeter.
He is most profitable with 4 year old newcomers to bumpers.
If they do not win on debut, Pipe’s bumper runners provide poor value next time out.
David Pipe doesn’t have a great record with his hurdlers who switch to handicap company, especially if they are unfancied in the betting. They make good laying opportunities.
He does best with handicap hurdlers in December and January.
His last time out winners racing in handicap hurdle company do well when turned out quickly, but are poor value when off for more than 4 weeks.
Novice chasers do very well in September-December.
Pipe’s handicap chasers have a very profitable record in January and February.
They do best when off for 8-14 days or after a mini break (57-90 days).
His horses are good value with claimers aboard, particularly when turned out quickly and favourite.