Chris Wall Racehorse Trainer – In Focus

Chris Wall is one of the many trainers who calls Newmarket home. Averaging a little over 200 runners each year, Wall definitely has to be considered one of the shrewdest handlers in the industry. His strike rate is approaching 14% and his runners regularly provide value at their odds.

Is there any time when Wall’s runners do better than others? How do they fare on the back of an absence? We find all the answers out.

2 Year Olds

Wall doesn’t have a large number of 2 year old runners – typically averaging around 11 a season. He has just a modest strike rate; 4/113 (3.54%) for loss of £-37, A/E 1.01, but most of his debutants start at big odds.

The horses tend to learn from their debut, and are 7/74 (9.46%) second time out, for a level return and an A/E of 1.21.

3 Year Olds

Backing Chris Wall’s first time out 3 year olds is not the route to riches. Their record is pretty terrible for a trainer of his ability; just 1/80 (1.25%) for loss of £-72.50 and an A/E 0.30. On their second start, they don’t do much better; 4/100 (4%) for loss of £-25. A/E 0.70.

A trainer with a long term plan and a solid grasp of the handicap system, it is no surprise that Wall’s runners display significant improvement when they have had 3 starts in maiden company and qualify for a handicap mark.

His record with runners that did not win their 3rd start before getting a mark is impressive; 15/86 (17.44%) with a further 17 places, for a £40 LSP, producing an A/E of 1.67.

3 Year Olds in 3 Year Old Only Handicaps

Month	Runners	Winners	Win S/R	P/L to SP	A/E
January	4	0	0%	-£4.00	0
February	7	1	14.29%	-£0.50	2.27
March	4	0	0%	-£4.00	0
April	41	5	12.20%	-£7.10	1.93
May	82	8	9.76%	-£7.67	1.19
June	100	16	16%	-£23.46	1.43
July	74	19	25.68%	£49.00	1.7
August	75	16	21.33%	-£16.88	1.29
September	49	12	24.49%	-£29.25	1.72
October	28	3	10.71%	£14.00	0.94
November	8	1	12.50%	-£5.90	0.78
December	4	2	50%	-£3.10	2.23

The Newmarket trainer’s record in the summer months into autumn is fantastic.

From June-September his 3 year olds competing against their own age group are 63/298 (21.14%) for £118.59 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.51. They really need to be backed blindly at this time of year. His runners racing over shorter than 10f did even better; 55/218 (25.23%) for £135.84 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.70.

Wall’s results are not so positive when looking at his 3 year old+ handicappers:

3 Year Olds in 3 Year Old+ Handicaps

Month	Runners	Winners	Win S/R	P/L to SP	A/E
January	1	0	0%	-£1.00	0
February	3	0	0%	-£3.00	0
March	3	0	0%	-£3.00	0
April	18	1	5.56%	-£14.00	0.83
May	20	0	0%	-£20.00	0
June	30	1	3.33%	-£4.00	0.39
July	37	8	21.62%	£22.75	1.37
August	47	7	14.89%	-£16.13	1.12
September	68	9	13.24%	-£27.38	1.06
October	65	9	13.85%	£37.75	1.13
November	26	4	15.38%	-£3.00	0.89
December	13	1	7.69%	-£8.00	0.51

His 3 year olds in 3 year old + handicaps have a terrible record in the first half of the year.

From January-June, they are 2/75 (2.67%) for a loss of £-45, giving an A/E of 0.35. Their record picks up in the second half of the year; 38/256 (14.84%) for a LSP of £6 and an A/E of 1.09.

Days Off the Track

Although he has a great record most of the time, Wall tends to do best when his runners have had a mini break of 4-8 weeks:

Days Since Last Run	Runners	Winners	Win S/R	P/L to SP	A/E
0-7	17	4	23.53%	-£3.50	1.42
8-14	174	33	18.97%	£45.35	1.19
15-21	290	52	17.93%	£19.66	1.27
22-28	225	34	15.11%	£0.66	1.14
29-42	247	46	18.62%	£40.68	1.34
43-56	75	14	18.67%	£37.75	1.48
57-90	63	6	9.52%	-£12.90	0.73
91-150	44	8	18.18%	£20.25	1.73
150+	159	15	9.43%	-£25.62	0.91

His horses off for 150+ days do slightly worse than they should do based on odds.

Courses

Trainers are renowned for being creatures of habit, and generally doing very well at some courses and poorly at others. There are a handful of courses where Wall does exceptionally well:

Course	Runners	Winners	Win S/R	P/L to SP	A/E
Newbury	72	12	16.67%	£57.63	1.71
Yarmouth	209	47	22.49%	£73.40	1.6
Brighton	50	12	24%	£43.88	1.56
Sandown	97	18	18.56%	£13.04	1.49
Kempton	169	32	18.93%	£37.58	1.44
Linfield	229	47	20.52%	£108.40	1.43
Nottingham	80	9	11.25%	-£44.63	0.87
York	34	2	5.88%	-£16.50	0.81
Haydock	44	3	6.82%	-£11.50	0.57
Southwell	26	2	7.69%	-£11.00	0.54
Ascot	76	2	2.63%	-£54.00	0.42
Chepstow	15	0	0%	-£15.00	0
Catterick	12	0	0%	-£12.00	0

Yarmouth in particular, is one of his local tracks, and his strike rate, profit and A/E are fantastic at the seaside course.

The only track where Wall displays a real weakness is Ascot, where his runners are 2/76. This can be expected to an extent, as most of the races run at the track (particularly during the Royal Meeting) are very competitive.

Beaten Favourites Last Time Out

Chris Wall is a good judge of a horse, and a solid race reader. He rarely leaves the money behind more than once, and has one of the best records in the industry with his horses who were beaten favourites last time out; 61/235 (25.96%) for £142.93 LSP, A/E 1.52.

Chris Wall’s last time out beaten favourites should be backed next time they run.

Claiming Jockeys

Claiming jockeys are utilised in a variety of ways by trainers. Some like to help their apprentices learn on the job, whilst others utilise these inexperienced jockey’s ability to claim off their rides.

Wall falls into the latter category, and he tends to jock up talented young riders who are good value for the weight they are able to relieve their mounts of.

From 213 runners with claiming jockeys (3-7lbs), he has amassed 38 winners (17.84% win rate), producing a LSP of £75.70, giving an A/E of 1.40

Review

Chris Wall’s 2 year olds can generally be avoided on their first and second starts. They represent poor value.
A similar story applies to his first time out and second time out 3 year olds. Their strike rate is poor.
Wall’s 3 year olds moving from maiden to handicap company after 3 starts are usually well in and are very profitable.
From June-September, Wall has a fantastic record in 3 year old only handicaps, especially over shorter trips (less than 10f).
His 3 year olds in 3 year old+ handicaps have a terrible record in the first 6 months of the year. Their strike rate and returns improve after June.
Newbury, Yarmouth, Brighton, Sandown, Kempton and Lingfield are tracks that Wall excels at. He has a moderate record at Ascot.
Chris Wall’s horses who were beaten favourite’s last time out have a superb record next time. They don’t leave the money behind twice in a row.
When Wall uses claiming jockeys, they are usually very competent and good value for their claim. Backing his horses blindly with a claimer on board is a profitable strategy.