Trainer in Focus – James Fanshawe

James Fanshawe looks like a mad professor, but he has one of the sharpest minds in the racing game. Notoriously good at race placing, he has an impressive strike rate of 14% and has had extensive success at the top level. In this article we dissect Fanshawe’s performers from aged two and up.

2 Year Old Debutants

James Fanshawe doesn’t have a huge number of 2 year old debutants, and they don’t score too frequently; 10/148 (6.76%) for loss of £-32. A/E 1.03. Although they don’t win too often, they are actually victorious more often than the odds imply they should be.

The Newmarket trainers’ runners tend to learn a lot from their first outing at the race course and are 12/70 (17.14%) second time up, giving a loss of £-17.42, but also producing an A/E of 1.29 in the process. When they are fancied (5/1 or shorter), the record becomes very strong; 11/27 (40.74%) for £10.58 LSP, A/E 1.59.

3 Year Olds

Again, Fanshawe’s strike rate is not fantastic with his 3 year old debutants; 10/153 (6.54%) for loss of £-62.63 A/E 0.97

Unlike his juveniles, there is no improvement second time up, and although their win record is better, the returns are much poorer; 14/190 (7.37%) for loss of £-120.59 A/E 0.70:

Days Since Last Run	Runners	Winners	Win S/R	P/L to SP	A/E
0-7	2	0	05	-£2.00	0
8-14	22	1	4.55%	-£18.50	0.49
15-21	39	0	0%	-£39.00	0
22-28	20	2	10%	-£9.27	1.00
29-42	25	3	12%	£4.20	0.89
43-56	7	1	14.29%	-£2.00	0.7
57-90	9	1	11.11%	-£6.90	0.62
91-150	6	0	0%	-£6.00	0
150+	60	6	10%	-£41.11	0.95

*A/E denotes actual number of winners divided by expected number of winners. A figure over 1 represents good value, anything under 1 is poor value.

Breaking down the runners by time of the track, we can see that runners who had one run at 2 and are coming back after a 150+ day break have a reasonable record. However, those turned out within 3 weeks do especially poorly – just 1/63 (1.59%) for a loss of £-59.50 A/E 0.19.

The likely reason for this is that Fanshawe is likely to try and get 3 quick runs into his horses to obtain an official rating, however his thrice run maiden to handicap switchers (did not win last time out) are 21/182 (11.54%) for loss of £-61. A/E 0.96. This is an average record.

3 Year Old+ Handicappers

There are a few courses in particular where Fanshawe’s runners really need respecting:

3 Year Old+ Handicappers by Course

Course	Runners	Winners	Win S/R	P/L to SP	A/E
Goodwood	52	13	25%	£9.83	1.80
Kempton	232	51	21.98%	£95.96	1.41
Ascot	47	7	14.89%	£1.50	1.19
Doncaster	69	12	17.39%	£6.30	1.17
Haydock	26	2	7.69%	-£16.50	0.56
Warwick	21	2	9.52%	-£15.63	0.55
Salisbury	21	2	9.52%	-£14.43	0.54
Sandown	23	0	0%	-£23.00	0

He does especially well at Goodwood, and has an extremely strong record at Kempton, with most of his handicap performers operating at the track (slightly surprising as it is generally a lower grade all-weather course). He has struggled at Sandown, with no winners from 23 runners.

Last Time Out Winners

Many trainers exhibit trends with their last time out winners and Fanshawe is no different, although his performance bias is not in line with many handlers:

Days Since Last Run	Runners	Winners	Win S/R	P/L to SP	A/E
1-28	120	30	24.80%	-£32.25	0.80
29+	125	21	16.67%	£34.16	1.35

The more time off the track for his last time out victors, the better they do. They have a higher strike rate, profit and A/E. Quite often, trainers try to bring their runners back quickly to make the most of their horse’s good form, but Fanshawe is more patient and does better when giving his runners a rest.

Non-Last Time Out Winners

Non-last time out winners demonstrate a different trend:

Days Since Last Run	Runners	Winners	Win S/R	P/L to SP	A/E
0-7	14	4	28.57	£20.00	1.96
8-14	142	26	18.31%	-£7.00	1.20
15-21	248	32	12.90%	-£69.72	0.89
22-28	171	24	14.04%	-£16.00	0.98
29-42	206	24	11.65%	-£38.46	0.81
43-56	68	11	16.18%	£11.50	1.23
57-90	51	9	17.65%	£11.25	1.39
91-150	27	2	7.41%	-£20.13	0.58
150+	89	10	11.24%	-£22.50	0.82

Those turned out within 2 weeks do very well, operating at a good strike rate and giving positive returns. Horses off for 2-6 weeks have a poorer win percentage and underperform against market expectations.

Fanshawe’s horses who have been give mini break do well again, and those that have had an extended absence off the track have a modest record.

Race Class

Races typically get harder to win as the class of the contest gets higher (Class 1 is the best). Are there any trends in Fanshawe’s performance based on the grade in which his performers compete?

Runners by Race Class

Class	Runners	Winners	Win S/R	P/L to SP	A/E
1	229	29	12.66%	-£22.43	0.87
2	198	23	11.62%	-£12.47	0.88
3	184	45	24.46%	£75.03	1.41
4	477	77	16.14%	-£52.37	1.10
5	1060	122	11.51%	-£285.06	0.88
6	298	50	16.78%	-£24.71	0.99

Interestingly, Fanshawe has much the best record in Class 3 company – his strike rate is high, he produces a healthy profit and the A/E is strong. He has most runners in Class 5 company, and his runners don’t do fantastically in the grade.

Those in Class 1 and Class 2 company also have a low win rate and a modest A/E.

Beaten Favourites

Beaten favourites can be frustrating. Trainers respond differently to having market principles turned over – some try and gain compensation quickly, whilst others bide their time and look for a suitable opportunity.

Fanshawe’s overall record is okay; 65/341 (19.06%) for a loss of £-48.89, giving an A/E of 0.99, but when his horses run within 2 weeks they become profitable; 10/38 (26.32%) for £11.38 LSP, producing an A/E of 1.52.

Claiming Races

Claiming races are those contests where connections allocate their horses weight based on the amount that they are willing to sell the runner for. At the end of the race, one or more buyers can signal their interest in claiming a particular horse, and therefore the yard may lose their runner.

Although James Fanshawe has only had a very small number of runners in these contests in recent years, his record has been impressive; 9/27 (33.33%) for a £26.63 LSP, giving an A/E of 2.03.

Review

Fanshawe’s 2 year old debutants have a modest strike rate but win a little more than they are entitled to based on odds.
His second time out juveniles learn plenty from their debut and are particularly profitable when fancied in the betting (6.00 or shorter).
3 year old debutants do modestly on debut and worse second time out, especially when turned out within 3 weeks of first contest.
His 3 year old+ handicappers really need respect at Goodwood and Kempton. He struggles at Sandown.
Last time out winners do best when given a break of 4 weeks or more between contests.
Non-last time out winners do best off breaks of 1-14 days and 43-90 days.
Fanshawe’s Class 3 runners are very profitable.
His beaten favourites do well when turned out within 2 weeks.
James Fanshawe doesn’t often have runners in claimers, but when he does, they are profitable.